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August Hebei steel industry PMI rose slightly

August 2016 Hebei steel industry PMI was 50.2%, the chain increased 0.2 percentage points, output index and the new orders index remained in the fortunes of the online side, China Hot Dipped Galvanized Steel Sheet raw material inventories rose more obvious.
August new orders index was 52.8%, a decline of 2.5 percentage points in August is still off-season demand, traders purchase mainly from the social stock continued to rise is an example. Recent economic data show that fixed-asset investment and real estate investment growth continued to decline in end demand remains tepid. July growth rate of industrial added value grew by 6%, down 0.2 percentage points from June. 1--7 in fixed asset investment grew by 8.1%, the growth rate decreased by 0.9 percentage points, the fourth consecutive decline. 1--7 Yuefen real estate investment grew 5.3%, the growth rate decreased by 0.8 percentage points lower than the previous three consecutive months. 1--7 Yuefen real estate new construction area increased by 13.7%, the growth rate decreased by 1.2 percentage points lower than the previous three consecutive months. By the purchase tax on small cars is about to expire influence, 7, substantial growth in car sales in August, but this growth can not be sustained, October policy expires. Real estate sales growth this year, driven by improved sales of home appliances section, with the decline in real estate sales growth, sales continued late appliances not strong. Therefore, whether the medium-term or long-term steel demand outlook is not optimistic.
The new export orders index in August was 45.5%, the chain increased 6.6 percentage points, for 3 consecutive months, is located below the line ups and downs, the export situation is not optimistic about the latter part of the display. August, the trend of a larger international market differentiation, the market continued to rise in East Asia, Southeast Asia and then remained stable, the Middle East, Europe and US markets remain weak, China's steel exports quote competitive, export enterprises generally reflect the decline in orders.
Output index in August was 51.3%, growth of 0.1 percentage points, a small increase in steel operating rates in August to commemorate the 40th anniversary of the Tangshan earthquake limited production end, part of the steel operating rates improved. Mysteel survey, August blast in Hebei Province and the national rate of starts rose ring, rolling line of Tangshan operating rate also rose ring. September Tangshan region will launch a new round of environmental protection limited production, production will be affected.
Finished steel stock index in August was 34.7%, a decline of 2.1 percentage points, steel stocks continued to decline. Steel Association statistics show that in mid-August 2016 at the end of Key steel enterprises steel stocks 13.33 million tons, compared with the end of mid-July decreased 640,000 tons, which fell 2.12 million tons. According to Mysteel statistics, August 26, five varieties of national social stock is 9.36 million tons, compared with the end of July up 51 million tons, the social stock began to rise. August market rose atmosphere, free of cost to meet the "golden nine silver ten" sales season, active stockpile, which led to the decline in steel stocks, the social stock rise. The social stock noteworthy changes is different from the previous three years, 2013-2015, August inventories are declining society, an abnormal rise in stocks this year is not a good sign.
August raw materials inventory index was 52.6%, the chain increased 6.3 percentage points, seven slightly wounded raised the fortunes of the online side, steel mills sustained profitability, improved cash flow, rising raw material inventory levels. Mysteel survey, national sample in August rose ring mill ore, coking coal stocks were down. From raw material sourcing, in August Hebei steel import and domestic ore mine purchase volume rose ring imported ore purchases increased much greater, Hebei steel mills ore ratio of overall improvement.
August domestic steel prices continue upward. August Mysteel integrated steel prices rose by 6.7% or 180 yuan / ton to 2877 yuan / ton, compared with last year rose 25.9%, or 591 yuan / ton. Sub-species, the long steel chain rose 5.1%, rose 18.3%; flat products rose by 8%, an increase of 33%. Raw materials, iron ore in August composite price of 462 yuan / ton, up 5.2% or 23 yuan / ton, up flat. Integrated coke price 1138 yuan / ton, up 26.6 percent or 239 yuan / ton, up 62 percent or 436 yuan / ton. August steel prices rises higher than the price of raw materials, steel mills continue to improve profitability.
September domestic steel market is expected to shock down. From the supply point of view, September Tangshan limited production of environmental protection, the G20 meeting in East China has limited production, there is a reduction of market supply factors, but also for the traditional September production season, is expected to supply the market remains growth. From the demand point of view, two important factors supporting the needs of the current round of rising steel prices and the base price of the real estate investment growth, but with the strengthening of efforts to purchase real estate around the late real estate investment will be affected; From a cost perspective, the basic iron ore face even fragile than steel in the domestic steel and coal production capacity to the background, bearing ore, coke and coking coal is relatively good, the overall cost is still down. From a macro perspective, the national government still vigorously promote the reform of the supply side of the steel, the demand side is to promote infrastructural PPP, partial positive. The Fed's recent rate hike may sound September, bad commodity. Overall judgment, steel prices continued to rise last two months have been fully digested a variety of favorable factors in the regulation of real estate background, September steel prices will shock callback.

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