Black defeated slump days
13 closing futures market, maize, sugar rose over 1% copper, Zheng cotton, palm, Shanghai lead, Shanghai aluminum and other closed up; glass limit, coke, coking coal fell over 3%, iron ore, China Galvalume Steel Sheet
down over 2% tin Shanghai, Shanghai nickel, hot rolled, Shanghai zinc, soybean meal, rapeseed and other fell.
Iron ore, today (13 May, the same below) fell 2.84%, steel fell 2.21%, fell for two consecutive days.
Analysis of the industry, the steel industry this summer off-season rapid rise in advance overdraft Steel City "Golden September and Silver October," the market, the steel market may usher in a stage of adjustment.
As of last weekend, a comprehensive inventory of the total national steel 967 million tons, an increase of 1.5%. This is the eighth consecutive week of steel stock market rise. Stock still rise into the traditional shopping season, the market confidence will be a certain hit.
Analyst, terminal weaker demand and steel exports decline, leading to the recent domestic steel stocks continued to climb the main reason. According to its analysis, first of all, real estate sales growth trend seems to have come down, real estate development and investment continued low growth. Since May, the real estate investment has been three consecutive months of decline. Secondly, steel prices before the earnings effect, tap the potential production enthusiasm high. According to CISA statistics, in August key steel enterprises amounted to average daily crude steel production was 1.6987 million tons, close to the record high yield.
Guotai Junan Futures senior analyst Liu Qiuping that the recent futures market mentality instability, greater selling pressure. In addition, the market for the fourth quarter whether liquidity will continue easing, whether to tighten macro-control big differences began to appear, which also affected the market sentiment.
Black futures price is overextended?
Guo right: Some may worry that this price is not the existence of the bubble is not super up, the same as last year's stock market crash. How do we determined that ultra-up, you can go to judge from several angles. The first point of view of the spot price spread, futures are not a substantial premium, if contango spot very much, indicating that expectations about the future, too far from the spot. We now see the price difference of view, or partial premium coking coal coke, because the spot price is not quite true, true, it may have this price, you do not arrive mining, such as the recent coking coal, power coal, we see the price difference does not appear substantial premium. Early rebar futures have a certain premium, recent adjustments to premiums and discounts are also fixed. First from the perspective of the price difference is no obvious super-up phenomenon.
Black differentiation trend is expected to
Looking ahead, price fluctuations, Wing futures researcher Liu Liangliang analysis, conducted from the perspective of profit, profit transfer to the current black coal terminal. For the purposes of coking coal coke, fell sharply after the steel, coking coal with probability fall, Budie coke, coking coal coke continue late Budie larger, but the fundamentals are still good coking coal coke, steel mills are still profits, and steel mills currently no signs of cuts, coking coal coke fell way twists and turns, especially coking coal short-term rebound is still possible. However, profit after steel compression, will bear the brunt of coke, steel profits once close to zero, the probability of large Budie coke, and the decline may be larger, followed by coking coal will Budie. For coal, the current conditions is mainly affected by the policy, in general, should remain wide concussion.
Shiyu Chen also believes that the late black cultivars trend is expected to appear differentiation. Relatively strong fundamentals of coking coal and coke futures will remain strong side of the trend, iron ore varieties due to lower steel production decreased, as well as Australia, Brazil exports to China remain high, a large supply pressure, price is easy or hard up. Thread futures in the long and short interwoven factors, is expected to remain wide shock pattern.