CISA: the late iron ore prices will continue to show volatility trend
August China iron ore price index (CIOPI) from up to down
The latter will continue to show volatility trend
August, subject to national policy measures affecting production, China Hot Dipped Galvanized Steel Sheet
production is difficult with large growth; at the same time, imports of iron ore stocks remained at a high level, the domestic iron ore market oversupply and demand is still obvious, the late iron ore prices will fluctuate trend.
First, China's iron ore price index from up to down
According to the Iron and Steel Institute to monitor the end of August, China's iron ore price index (CIOPI) to 212.77 points, down 2.86 points, a decline of 1.33%, the chain from up to down. Of which: domestic iron ore price index was 206.28 points, the chain increased 11.05 points, an increase of 5.66%, an increase from the previous month narrowed 2.31 percentage points; imports of iron ore price index was 213.99 points, down 5.48 points, a decline of 2.50 % MoM from up to down. From the whole situation month high China iron ore price index (CIOPI) the overall level of the previous month. August average of 219.27 points, rose 12.58 points the previous month, an increase of 6.09%, an increase from the previous month narrowed 2.70 percentage points. Of which: domestic iron ore price index average of 202.40 points, the chain increased 10.29 points, an increase of 5.36%, an increase from the previous month increased 3.22 percentage points; imports iron ore price index average of 222.45 points, the chain increased 13.02 points , an increase of 6.22%, an increase from the previous month narrowed 3.80 percentage points.
Second, the price of imported ore from up to down, domestic ore prices continue to rise
In late August, the domestic price of iron ore tax 530.79 yuan / ton, rose 28.43 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.66%; CIF import iron ore fines was $ 57.80 / ton, down $ 1.48 / ton, a decline of 2.50 % MoM from up to down. (See below)
From full month situation, the domestic iron ore increased volatility, the average monthly price of a full tax 520.81 yuan / ton, last month the average price rose 26.46 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.35%. Where: 1 to 17 August from 503.70 yuan / ton fluctuations rose to 520.17 yuan / ton; 17 to 29 August, up from the 520.17 yuan / ton to 534.74 yuan / ton, August 29 to the end, It dropped from 534.74 yuan / ton, slightly to 530.79 yuan / ton.
Imported iron ore fines price fluctuations, total monthly average CIF price of $ 60.08 / ton, last month rose to $ 3.51 / ton, an increase of 6.20%. Where: 1 to 24 August, up from US $ 61 / ton slight fluctuations to $ 61.28 / t; August 24 to the end, down from the 61.28 yuan / ton to $ 57.80 / ton.
Third, the late iron ore price trend analysis
August, minor fluctuations in the iron ore market, measures to limit production by late Hangzhou G20 summit in Tangshan and regional influence, steel production is difficult to have a big increase, while port stocks remain high, iron ore prices will continue to show volatility trend.
1, steel production is difficult to substantial growth in demand for iron ore will remain stable
According Xunbao Iron and Steel Association statistics, eight months early, member steel enterprises crude steel daily output of 1.7554 million tons accumulated, the projected national crude steel output was 2.2261 million tons, although rising 3.30 percent compared with July, but significantly lower than in the second quarter Nissan's level of 2.301 million tons. Hangzhou G20 summit in September to limit production, there are still three times Tangshan limited production under the program as well as to the capacity in the context of group supervision, steel production is still hard to have a big growth in iron ore demand will remain stable.
2, port inventories remain high, iron ore oversupply situation has not changed
According to the Iron and Steel Institute to monitor the end of August, enterprises imported 43.92 million tons of iron ore stocks, the chain increased 1.44 million tons, an increase of 3.38%; China imported iron ore port stocks to 105.4 million tons, a decline of 3.24 million tons, an increase of 24.81 million tons; 1--7 months, the country's pig iron output was 467 million tons, down 2.25 million tons; the same period, imports of iron ore, 582 million tons, an increase of 43.45 million tons. Iron ore market oversupply situation has not changed.
3, steel prices profitability narrowed, iron ore prices continue upward difficult
According Steel Association statistics, 1--7 months, members of steel companies break even after a total profit of 16.348 billion yuan, achieved profitability, but the monthly situation, only 3.822 billion yuan in July, a decline for two consecutive months iron and steel enterprises are still at a low level of profitability. In the iron and steel production capacity to the background of the late iron ore prices surged difficult, volatility will run.