CISA: the late steel prices will show a range-bound trend
August domestic market, steel prices continue to rise
Late show a range-bound trend
In August, the steady growth in the country and to the capacity to show the effects of policies, major steel industry growth accelerated, the demand situation has improved, steel prices continue to rise slightly. However, due to the contradiction of supply exceeding demand has not changed, the late steel prices difficult to continue to rise, will show a range-bound trend.
First, the domestic steel market prices continue to rise, increasing the chain increases
In late August, China Iron and Steel Association CSPI steel price index was 77.54 points, the chain rose 5.45 points, an increase of 7.56 percent, the second consecutive month the chain picked up, an increase from the previous month increased 1.28 percentage points; rose 14.18 points, an increase of 22.38 %.
1, the smaller increase in prices of long products, sheet metal price increases to increase
End 8, CSPI long products index was 76.85 points, the chain rose 5.30 points, an increase of 7.41% from the previous month narrowed 0.22 percentage points; CSPI plate index was 79.94 points, the chain rose 5.39 points, an increase of 7.23 percent the previous month increased 2.41 percentage points; compared to last year, long products index rose 11.50 points, an increase of 17.60%; plate index rose 18.10 points, an increase of 29.27%.
2, the main varieties of steel prices have rebounded
In late August, the eight varieties of steel price monitoring China Iron and Steel Association have rebounded. Including: high wire, rebar and plate prices than smaller increase, respectively, the chain increased 149 yuan / ton, 169 yuan / ton and 177 yuan / ton; angle steel, hot-rolled coil, cold-rolled sheet and pipe prices MoM increase increase, respectively, the chain increased 204 yuan / ton, 208 yuan / ton, 283 yuan / ton and 343 yuan / ton; galvanized sheet prices turned up by the fall, the chain increased 343 yuan / ton.
3, steel prices upward by week into September showed a slight downward trend
From each week situation, August CSPI domestic steel price index showed a rising trend by week; slight fluctuations into September to the third week of September, steel prices fell for two consecutive weeks.
4, the regional steel market prices continue to rise
In August, the country of the regional market, steel prices continue to rise, in addition to the smaller increase in the price of the Northwest, the price increases in other regions were all increased. From the chain situation, Northeast China steel prices showed the largest increase, the chain increased 8.12%; Northwest price increases minimum, the chain increased 6.25%; North, East, South and Southwest regions prices increased 7.76%, respectively, 7.08%, 6.55% and 6.90 %.
Second, the domestic steel market price changes Factors
August, as the weather gradually cool, the domestic steel market to enter the peak season demand, the steel industry growth accelerated, the chain increased steel production, steel prices continued to rise.
1, the main steel industry growth accelerated, steel supply and demand situation has improved
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to August, investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) increased by 8.1%, and from January to July growth rate was flat; national real estate development investment grew 5.4%, compared with January-July growth up 0.1 percentage points; in August, above-scale industrial added value increased by 6.3%, 0.3% higher than in July. From major steel industry, the general equipment manufacturing, special equipment manufacturing, railway \ ship \ aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing and electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing growth last month to speed up 2.1,1.9,0.8 and 0.4, respectively percentage points; PPI fell 0.8 percent, a decline narrowed 0.9 percentage points from last month; total electricity consumption growth of 8.3%, an acceleration of 0.1 percentage points from last month; railway freight volume growth from negative to positive in August increase of 1% (in July after falling 5.8%); manufacturing PMI was 50.4%, the chain increased 0.5 percentage points. Overall, the major steel industry growth accelerated, the steel market supply and demand situation has improved.
2, crude steel output rise, the market supply and demand has not been changed
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in August, the national pig iron, crude steel and steel products (excluding duplicate material) production was 60.19 million tons, 68.57 million tons and 97.91 million tons, respectively, an increase of 3.6%, 3.0% and 4.0%; crude Average daily steel production was 2,211,900 tons, increased 56,700 tons last month, the chain increased 2.63%. According to customs statistics, in August the country's steel exports 9.01 million tons, 1.11 million tons of steel imports, net exports of 8.2 million tons of crude steel folding, a decrease of 1.32 million tons, down 13.9%. Down 840,000 tons, down 9.3%. According to the above figures, the supply of domestic crude steel in August, the chain increased 5.4%. Increase in crude steel production, partially offset by growth in demand, market supply and demand has not been changed.
3, raw materials and fuel prices increased significantly, steel prices have a supporting role
In August, the main raw materials and fuel prices increased significantly, especially for larger coal, coke and scrap price rises. According to worldsteel monitoring, late August, iron ore imports (customs) price of $ 55.76 / ton, the chain increased 0.31%, turned up by the fall; domestic iron ore price is 518 yuan / ton, rose 7.02% last month increased 2.03 percentage points; coking coal price of 775 yuan / ton, increased by 10.71 percent, 9.26 percentage points increase over the previous month; metallurgical coke price 1123 yuan / ton, increased by 21.80% the previous month increased 19.70 percentage points; scrap price is 1531 yuan / ton, increased by 7.97 percent, 3.55 percentage point increase the previous month. Increased raw materials and fuel price increases, steel supporting role further enhanced.
Third, the international steel market prices continue to fall, the chain fell narrowed
August, CRU international steel price index was 141.7 points, down 0.1 points, a decline of 0.1% for three consecutive months of decline, but the decline narrowed by 1.7 percentage points from last month; compared to last year rose 16.1 points, an increase of 12.8%.
1, long products prices turned up by the fall, the price decline narrowed plate
In August, CRU long products price index was 140.2 points, the chain increased 0.8 points, an increase of 0.6 percent compared to the fall turn liter; CRU plate price index was 142.5 points, down 0.5 points, a decline of 0.3 percent, a decline narrowed 0.2 percentage points; compared with the same period last year, long products index rose 2.0 points, an increase of 1.4%; plate index rose 23.2 points, an increase of 19.4%.
2, North America fell increase, decline narrowed in Europe, Asia, turned up by the fall
(1) North America
In August, CRU North American steel price index was 168.7 points, down 3.9 points, a decline of 2.3%, a decline from the previous month increased by 1.6 percentage points. In August, the US manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, a decline of 3.2 percentage points. New orders index fell 7.8 percent, the production index fell 5.8 percentage points; the end of August, US crude steel capacity utilization was 70.2%, down 1.7 percentage points from the end of July. By the fall in scrap prices this month, the US Midwest mill steel, wire rod, plate and hot-rolled coil prices continue to decline, and have increased qoq; small sections, and hot-dip galvanized steel prices from up to down; by the cold-rolled coil prices flat to down.
(2) the European market
In August, CRU steel price index for Europe 155.4 points, down 1.8 points, a decline of 1.1%, a decline from the previous month narrowed 2.5 percentage points. In August, the euro zone manufacturing PMI was 51.7, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points. In the euro area the major countries, the German manufacturing PMI was 53.6%, down 0.2 percentage points; Spain was 51.0%, unchanged; Italy and France, respectively, 49.8% and 48.3%, the chain were down 1.4 and 0.3 percentage points, still less than 50%. This month the German market steel prices were flat; hot-rolled coil prices turned up by the fall; other varieties of steel prices continue to fall, a decline the previous month narrowed.
In August, CRU steel price index for Asia 118.3 points, the chain increased 3.1 points, an increase of 2.7%, the chain turned up by the fall. In August, Japan's manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, although the chain increased 0.2 percentage points, but the decline for six consecutive months; Korea manufacturing PMI was 48.6%, a decline of 1.5 percentage points; Chinese manufacturing PMI was 50.4%, the chain increased 0.5 percentage points. Chinese steel prices rebounded by the impact, the Far East market, rebar, wire rod, and HDG prices turned up by the fall, cold-rolled coil prices were flat, plate and hot-rolled coils continue to rise, and small sections from a flat steel prices turned up.
Fourth, the late steel market price trend analysis
State policies and measures by steady growth and supply-side structural reforms deepening impact of the national economy will maintain stable operation situation, the demand for steel is expected to maintain the appropriate size. However, due to the domestic steel market is still the oversupply situation, the late steel prices difficult to continue to rise, will show a range-bound trend.
1, the slow stabilization of the national economy, steel demand is expected to maintain the appropriate size
This year, the world economic recovery trend overall weak, unstable and uncertain factors. From the domestic situation, the restructuring of China, the upgrade is in the development stage, economic downward pressure is still large. August 31, the National Development and Reform Commission Xu Shaoshi when the second session of the NPC Standing Committee report on the implementation of national economic and social development plan for this year, said the state will afterburner late synergistic implementation of the proactive fiscal policy and monetary flexible and appropriate to implement prudent policy, in promoting the "three to a meeting of a down" at the same time, moderate expansion of aggregate demand. National Steel is determined to resolve the 2016 production target of 45 million tons tasks, from the current situation, this year will exceed the annual target. Fixed assets investment will maintain a rapid growth, with the continued advance of urbanization, real estate, infrastructure there is still much room for development, will boost steel demand remains considerable scale.
2, steel production capacity release is still faster, the oversupply situation No significant change
By demand situation has improved, the domestic steel production remained at a high level. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, 1--8 months, the national pig iron, crude steel and steel products (excluding duplicate material) cumulative production was 469.16 million tons, 536.32 million tons and 755.11 million tons, respectively, an increase of 0.8% - 0.1% and 2.2%. Wherein April, June crude steel production levels have hit a record high. According to customs data, 1--8 months, the country's total exports of 76.35 million tons of steel, 8.7 million tons of steel imports, net exports of crude steel folding 70.21 million tons. According to the above figures, the January-August crude steel apparent consumption of 466.11 million tons, down 1.1%, higher than the decline in crude steel production of 1.0 percentage points. From the overall situation, no significant improvement in market supply and demand, the late steel prices rose sharply difficult.
3, steel stocks turned up by the fall, the market is expected to enhance the turning point
In late August, the nation's major markets social stock of steel 936 million tons, up 51 million tons, an increase of 5.77%. Increase compared to 740,000 tons the same year, an increase of 8.54%. Judging from the recent situation, the steel stocks fell in late July has narrowed, from August to September by week began to rise, indicating that the market inflection point is expected to be enhanced.
Post-market need to focus on the main issues:
First, maintain high levels of iron and steel production, supply and demand has not changed. August crude steel output up 2.63%, an increase of 3.0%. Although September and October is the peak season of steel consumption, but the market oversupply and demand will not significantly change. Iron and steel enterprises should carefully analyze the supply and demand situation, take the initiative to adjust the product structure, and actively adapt to market changes.
Second, coal, coke prices rose sharply, leading to higher profit on reduced iron and steel enterprises. As of September 16, coking coal and metallurgical coke prices in early August rose 195 yuan / ton and 352 / ton respectively. Gains were 27.86% and 38.18% over the same period CSPI steel prices rose just 5.16%. The sharp rise in coal prices, steel companies will form a larger decrease the adverse effects.
Third, steel exports decreased, increased domestic market supply and demand. In August the country's steel exports fell to 9.01 million tons, a decline of 12.5%, down 7.4%. As international trade frictions have increased protection and complex international environment, the late steel exports more difficult still large, is not conducive to ease the domestic market supply and demand.