Coke, iron ore highs
"As long as the performance with last year, does not continue to decline, the industry had hoped to usher in a turning point", this law has been confirmed in the last year, the liquor industry, the steel industry, whether it's applicable?
Benefit from the rebound in steel prices in the first half performance of listed steel companies collective gains across the board. Agency data show that since July 11 notice issued performance of steel prices, there are nine companies realized losses and pre-growth, Maanshan Iron & Steel and other companies net profit increase in more than 100%.
This trend in the third quarter or will continue. Since August, Black commodity futures seems to have upgraded to version 2.0 of the market trend, coke, iron ore futures has exceeded the high point in April, finished China Hot Dipped Galvanized Steel Sheet
rebar, hot-rolled coil from the high of the year is also within easy reach.
21st Century Business Herald reporter learned that steel prices in order to go to the end of this year or early signed, just to determine the number, its pricing is adjusted periodically based on market prices. This means that if steel prices continue upward, producing profits per ton of steel prices will also increase.
"When recently went to Shanxi research found that both state-owned or private, to the capacity of policy implementation is quite strict," Southwest Futures Steel researcher XIA Xue Zhao 9th told reporters, local coal Supervisor Bureau of real-time monitoring of coal production, while the majority of coal enterprises but also in the low inventory state, and even some companies just twenty-three days stock, which prompted the recent coke futures rising continuously.
It is noteworthy that, coke, iron ore are the two most important raw material of steel production, with a continuous upward its prices, will further push the high price of finished steel coil, thread and other upstream.
Black then start
After continuous soaring in April, Black commodity prices began to fall, market attention is also reduced. But unwittingly, some species have now quietly breaking the previous high point.
August 5, coke main 1609 contract hit a new high this year 1155 yuan / ton, 8 limit break again; August 8, iron ore benchmark contract hit a new high this year 504.5 yuan / ton; August 9, coking coal the main contract to break the previous high of 837.5 yuan / ton.
Black recent intensive commodity hit a new high, will increase the future market may be further upgraded.
Driven by the above-mentioned species, the finished steel rebar, hot-rolled coil futures prices have followed upward. In steel, for example, the April high of 2787 yuan / ton, as of August 9 close, the benchmark contract has risen to 2589 yuan / ton.
It should be noted that, compared to the April market, the recent capital of Black speculation has been noticeably reduced, which is a key indicator than turnover positions.
21st Century Business Herald reporter found estimates, this year April 21, 1610 contracts traded positions than the thread up to 8.01, and August 8 and 9, two days, the contract traded positions ratio of only 2.54 and 2.4. Reduce the indicator, but also reduce the expected exchanges make trading restrictions.
During the end of May this year, a continuous decline in steel prices, steel prices had once returned to near breakeven line, and with the recent continuous steel prices up, profits of steel prices also will be improved.
"April's peak, some mills per tonne of steel produced profits of more than 600 yuan / ton, and the current production per ton profit rose to between 300-400 yuan." XIA Xue Zhao introduced, he said.
South China, a listed steel enterprises secretaries 9, also said the company is basically at full capacity, due to the recent raw material and product prices rise simultaneously, so the company is also relatively stable profit margins, "We also hope that the September season comes, steel We can continue to rise, so there is hope throughout the year losses. "
Continued strength steel can, to a large extent determines the performance of listed steel prices this year, the steel prices in the second half then in turn how to interpret?
"Historical trend in steel prices and growth in real estate investment are highly related to the third quarter, consumption of steel has entered the peak season, when the downstream demand will increase more now", Xia Zhao learn that this year steel city "is not busy season, off-season is not short "obvious characteristics, expected in September, October consumer is not too exceeded market expectations.
While the fourth quarter investment in real estate situation is not optimistic, and the current futures price of disk is already covered by factors including consumer expectations, expectations will not be honored if the steel prices may also fell sharply trend.
Sichuan, a local real estate industry sources 9 also pointed out that during the rainy season in the south, the site started corresponding affected to some extent, after the rainy season, the construction unit will catch the next period, or when the demand for steel will be improved.
Steel enterprises in the newspaper "pre-hi"
Although the second half of the steel prices could firm, there are still large uncertainties, but only for the first half of the term, no doubt be off to a good start.
August 4, data released by the China Steel Association, China Iron and Steel Industry Association member enterprises realized profits of 12.587 billion yuan in the first half, an increase of 4.27 times.
Reflected in the level of listed companies, it is focused on reporting the results pre-hi Trailer. Agency data show that already notice issued performance of the 21 steel enterprises, the eight companies net realized losses, net 6 pre-growth, continued loss of only five companies.
Sha Steel shares and is expected to January - September net profit from 70 million to 100 million yuan, an increase of 196.06 to 237.23 percent.
Similar to other building materials, taking into account the factor of transport costs, the steel itself, there are regional consumption characteristics, it has also become one of the reasons some steel enterprises losses of success.
"Steel belongs to Henan province transferred to steel, and rely only on company production can not meet consumer demand in the province", Anyang Iron and Steel relevant person in charge told reporters on the 9th, the company is currently the contract signed by the beginning of production in the first half after rising steel prices The company ex-factory price shift accordingly, the ultimate success of the company in the first half losses.
In fact, for the steel industry, in addition to the current performance support factors of mergers and acquisitions this year is also expected to increase substantially.
In June this year, Chongqing Iron and Steel and Valin restructuring both outgoing messages and are the subject of restructuring financial assets.
State Council recently issued the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the central enterprises restructuring and reorganization" also pointed out, and steadily push forward the field of equipment manufacturing, construction, electricity, steel and other corporate restructuring, the pooling of resources and joint efforts to reduce the disorderly competition and homogeneity management, effectively resolve related industry overcapacity.
Then they heard a "Baosteel and Wuhan Iron and Steel Group plans to merge to create the South Iron and Steel Group," the news, although the parties have responded that no exact message, but the market for the integration of central enterprises is expected growing.
XIA Xue Zhao believes that, through administrative means, large steel enterprises merge or there is a possibility, industry concentration increase will help strengthen the control of the industry, especially in the current domestic production capacity is in to the stage.
Although performance support, restructuring is expected to double aura plus body, but steel stocks has not been favored by professional investors.
Agency data show, Sha Steel shares in the second quarter fund holdings of 113.6 million shares, and Anyang Iron and Steel in the second quarter fund holdings of shares is also just 237 million shares.
Changjiang Securities research report also showed that the second quarter of 2016, the fund's largest steel stocks configured total market value of 1.416 billion yuan in the first quarter was 2.005 billion yuan, ranking the highest in the whole market, the industry last.
This is the end of April, and has continued to decline in early June steel unilateral not unrelated. It is foreseeable that, if the latter can continue rising steel prices, the Fund's participation steel stocks will rise with enthusiasm.