Railway freight growth for the first time in three years to steel volume increased significantly
September economic data is expected to continue gains across the board.
According to the figures released by the Ministry of Communications, the first three quarters of the whole social freight growth picked up, the monthly railway freight volume growth for the first time in more than two years from negative to positive, express freight volume growth accelerated, express business volume growth of more than 50%.
Railway freight volume in August to achieve a 1% growth rate, reversing the number since 2014, the negative growth trend, which largely reflects the economy there is a stage of "stabilizing" signs. From the current situation, in September railway freight will continue to grow rapidly.
The railway sector figures show that September 23 to 25 this year, the whole road for three consecutive days to reach 13 million car loading more than a record high this year, the highest level. This is also since December 2014, the whole road for the first time a single day back to 13 million car loading level.
National Bureau of Statistics will be released on October 19, the first three quarters of economic figures, the current number of institutions is expected in the first three quarters of this year's economic growth rate of 6.7%, consistent with the second quarter.
Huang Qun-hui, director of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that the economy is expected to be better than the first half of the third quarter, mainly reflected in the economic expectations, the industrial sector profits turn for the better, industrial producer prices (PPI) year on year growth is expected to positive, In the long run, still showing L-type trend.
Steel, coal transportation increased rapidly
21 years of economic news Reporter was informed that since 2014, rail freight volume has been showing a year on year growth rate is negative, until the first time in August this year into 1% of positive growth, this momentum will continue in September.
Railway sector figures show that in September a number of indicators of cargo loading a record high. The same month, the average daily cargo loading 12.6 million vehicles, an increase of 11,000 vehicles, an increase of 9.7%; the whole road cargo delivery volume of 7.56 million tons per day, an increase of 4.2%.
Iron ore daily average loading 7502 vehicles, an increase of 18.9%; timber, the average daily loading capacity of 18,300 tons, an increase of 18.9%; the same time, Average daily load of 1155 vehicles, an increase of 37.5%.
This analyst pointed out that the overall steel prices up recently, which is related to market pull. Recent steel demand is relatively large, but also with the international market has a good relationship.
It is understood that by the end of September this year, the price of the main products of the steel industry than the beginning of the year rose by nearly 40%. 5500 kcal of coal in Qinhuangdao open interest, compared to the beginning of this year also increased by 50%. The current billet prices in 2100 yuan per ton, 5500 kcal coal price per ton in 560 yuan, more than 100 yuan profit / ton.
However, rail freight in the steel, coal, rapid growth, and increase production capacity. For example, the National Development and Reform Commission decided in early September to increase production of 300,000 tons of coal in the case, the recent decision to increase coal production capacity of 500,000 tons.
Analysts believe that the mid-October will begin to enter the heating season in the north, and the South will also release the demand for heating, which led to coal demand.
Another rapid increase in rail freight and highway management overload, resulting in rising coal prices, which also further stimulated production. Especially if the cold this winter, increased demand for coal, the country may increase the daily average of 1 million tons capacity.
Economic stage "to stabilize"
Coal, steel transport increased, may be the performance of industrial growth accelerated, the economy appears stage "to stabilize."
At present the major institutions for the third quarter economic growth are relatively optimistic. Such as the October 9 announcement of the Chinese economists hot research results also show that economic growth throughout the year to determine more than 6.5% of economists, the proportion reached 34.78%, 6.5% to 6.9% on the proportion of the growth rate of high In the last survey.
21st Century Business Herald reporter was informed that the major institutions are expected to maintain economic growth throughout the year 6.7% is not a big problem. However, we can not conclude that the economic cycle of a new round of up cycle.
China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing Deputy Chief Economist Ho Hui believes that the recent volume of freight growth year on year to good, and the industrial part of the good. Especially the real estate industry improved, led to the rapid industry to the good.
But the recent introduction of a large number of cities to curb housing prices to limit the purchase of credit policy, which in the follow-up period of time or will be transmitted to the upper reaches of the real estate industry, the industry will also be affected. "In the third and fourth quarters of this year, the economy is unlikely to rebound sharply," the analyst said.
This year, the state of steel and coal industry to speed up the pace of removal of production capacity, but even so, next year to the production capacity task is still arduous. Analysts believe that now the price of steel rose slightly, the output will increase, the price will drop, so the future price will fluctuate around a balance point. "Demand is not all the way higher, the price did not significantly increase the trend." He said.
Huang Qun-hui, director of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that the central government's judgment on the economic situation as a whole has not changed since the beginning of last year. This is manifested by declining economic growth, declining fiscal revenue, falling industrial prices and declining industrial profits and increasing economic risk. . Only a slight improvement in industrial prices recently, while the real estate bubble has been shown in some cities.